are they wrong

[tatydt99]

im a member of a forum and they have been talking about roulette
heres a quote about getting 6 red in a row is it wrong or am i thinking about it in the wrong way


Originally posted by BigSte
you would have to be seriously unlucky to get more than about 6 same colour in a row tbh



NO

Say I've had

Black
Red
Black
Red
Red
Red
Red
Red

What are the chances of it being Red and what are the chances of it being black?

EXACTLY the same.
end quote



see i get what they mean about it would be 50/50 to get a red afterwards
but it would not be 50/50 to get 6 reds in a row

[tatydt99]

i was thinking to get 2 reds in a row it would be 25% and to get 3 in a row it would be 12.5% 4 would be 6.25% and so on
is that right:confused:

[SlickMick]

There is a difference between the odds of getting 6 reds in a row and the odds of getting red after there have been 5 in a row. Put simply (ignoring the 0) on every spin of the wheel the odds of getting a red are 50%.

[DiceMan]

Roulette spins, like coinflips, are independent events. The result of one spin of a roulette table at any point in time, does not tell you anything about the result of any other spin of the roulette table at any other point in time.

If we write "the probability of event X given Y" as P(X|Y), then if X and Y are results on a roulette table, P(X) is always equal to P(X|Y). That is, even if you've had a million reds in a row, this should tell you nothing about what will happen next.

[SonicMan]

Roulette spins, like coinflips, are independent events. The result of one spin of a roulette table at any point in time, does not tell you anything about the result of any other spin of the roulette table at any other point in time.

If we write "the probability of event X given Y" as P(X|Y), then if X and Y are results on a roulette table, P(X) is always equal to P(X|Y). That is, even if you've had a million reds in a row, this should tell you nothing about what will happen next.

Hey Dice, good game on poker.co.uk earlier
Thats exactly right, its the definition of Independence, are you a mathematician?

[shane837]

after 1 million reds turning up 1 after the other i would now think dam this thing is rigged or every1 is coloured blind

[SonicMan]

after 1 million reds turning up 1 after the other i would now think dam this thing is rigged or every1 is coloured blind

LOL, well the statistical fact still remains that there will be 1 million reds in a row sometinme in the infintie future. Its just that the sample size has to be massive, probably a googol at a guess (thats a 1 followed by 1million zeros)

[DiceMan]

Hey Dice, good game on poker.co.uk earlier
Thats exactly right, its the definition of Independence, are you a mathematician?

Sorry for the tardy response. I don't think I actually played any poker a week ago? I was out all night. Anyway, I'm not a mathematician, I'm even better than that: a philosopher! It turns out that we cross over with a lot of undergraduate level mathematics, like logic, decision, game and probability theory. Will probably see you in a poker game later. :thumb:

[SonicMan]

Yea a lot of links, and even with music

There are a whole lot of books devoted to the cross between the 3

You studying at the mo or something?

Catch ya on the tables

Good luck

[DiceMan]

I'm doing a masters in philosophy. Trying to find funding for a Ph.D. next year, which means looking to American universities. I think I've spent more time this year so far writing and researching applications than on my actual masters.:banger: